Insights

Macro

Q4 2024 Economic outlook: Landings are bumpy

Soft landing or hard landing? The economy is on approach, but policy uncertainty from the Fed and elections could make the landing bumpy.

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Chart of the week

Bond performance has improved, but volatility remains

Large monthly swings in core fixed income continue to rattle investors, calling into question its traditional role as a portfolio ballast.

Chart showing monthly and annual returns for the Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Index. While the index’s annual return has seen a solid recovery since its low point in 2022, the volatility of its monthly returns has picked up. The Agg has averaged 2% moves per month since the start of 2022 compared to an average of just 0.7% per month from 2015–2019.

Private markets outlook: Refilling the glass

Our experts examine private markets and the outlooks for private equity, private credit and commercial real estate in 2025.

Mapping the markets: Q4 2024

Our Investment Research team compiled their best charts and latest market analysis across macroeconomics, public markets and private market strategies to help our clients map today’s markets.

Bet on change: What’s next in policy and markets?

Head of Public Policy Jason Cole and Chief U.S. Economist Lara Rhame dive into what the Republican win means for markets, policy and the economy.

Chart of the week

Direct lending volume grows amid increased LBO activity

Private credit has increasingly become the preferred source of financing for PE sponsors, with direct lending volume jumping 60% over last year’s level.

Column chart showing direct lending deal volume by month. A line shows the 3-month moving average which has trended higher this year. Direct lending deal volume of $231 billion through September 2024 represents a nearly 60% jump versus all of 2023, a sign that LBO/M&A activity has picked up in recent months.

Chart of the week

Rising volatility expectations point to market anxiety

Expectations for equity and rate volatility spike amid increased election and rate anxiety.

Line chart that shows measures of expected rate (MOVE) and equity (VIX) volatility since June 2023. Both measures have been elevated since Q2 2024 but spiked in October amid increased investor anxiety surrounding the election and a shifting Fed rate outlook.

Showing 1–6 insights out of 398 results