My two favorite recession indicators
Our economy is slowing, and with partial yield curve inversion, investors are worried we’re heading into a recession. But two other indicators have a better track record at signaling one.
Anatomy of an economic slowdown – economic uncertainty becomes a headwind
Softening data YTD and yield curve inversion have raised concerns that growth could slow more sharply than expected, or even contract, resulting in a recession.
Equities sail into late-cycle headwinds
The end of 2018 may not have been a temporary rough patch for traditional equity investments, but the beginning of what could be a more extended period of challenged profits and heightened volatility.
Income investors will face challenges despite solid economy
A projected slowdown in growth means investors need to look beyond core fixed income to generate improved performance from their income investments. Chief U.S. Economist Lara Rhame explains.
A potentially dangerous curve
If the yield curve inverts, will a recession follow? Not necessarily, given how far from normal the current expansion and Fed rate hike cycle are. We believe investors should instead watch out for volatility sparked by recession fears and prepare for especially challenged traditional income sources.
Strong economic growth but rising risks in 2018
Sustained above-trend growth raises the risk of meaningfully higher volatility, something which has already caught investors by surprise in 2018. What factors are causing positive momentum and are they set to continue?
