Chart of the week

Showing 1–6 insights out of 93 results
Nov 8, 2024
By Research
2 minute read
Chart of the week

Private credit yields remain attractive despite Fed rate cuts

Real yields on private credit could remain in their top historical quartile even if the Fed cuts another 75 basis points as markets expect.

Line chart showing private credit real (inflation adjusted) yield and forecasted real yield based on the market-implied forecast of the Fed funds rate through December 2025. Even if the Fed reduces rates by another 75bps by December 2025 as the market currently expects, a private credit real yield of approximately 7.7% would be higher than in 80% of cases throughout the market’s history.
Oct 18, 2024
By Research
2 minute read
Chart of the week

Direct lending volume grows amid increased LBO activity

Private credit has increasingly become the preferred source of financing for PE sponsors, with direct lending volume jumping 60% over last year’s level.

Column chart showing direct lending deal volume by month. A line shows the 3-month moving average which has trended higher this year. Direct lending deal volume of $231 billion through September 2024 represents a nearly 60% jump versus all of 2023, a sign that LBO/M&A activity has picked up in recent months.
Sep 13, 2024
By Research
2 minute read
Chart of the week

Credit quality comes into focus amid heightened volatility

High yield bonds have outperformed senior secured loans in recent months, given their more attractive duration profile and higher credit quality.

Column chart showing high yield bonds’ monthly out- or underperformance versus senior secured loans. Whereas loans outperformed through much of the past year, high yield bonds have outperformed each of the past four months as investors prepare for a rate cutting cycle and emphasize higher-quality credit amid signs of an economic slowdown.
Jul 12, 2024
By Research
2 minute read
Chart of the week

U.S. middle market optimism outshines the world

This week’s chart examines the case for U.S. middle market firms, which expect a notably brighter future than their international peers.

Column chart showing the percentage of middle market firms by country that expect to generate higher profit growth over the next 12 months. U.S. middle market firms lead the way, with 70% of companies expecting higher profits compared a global average of 59%. Just 45% of firms in the European Union expect higher profits over the next 12 months compared to 56% of Asian Pacific firms, 58% of firms in the EMEA region and 63% of Latin American firms.
May 24, 2024
By Research
2 minute read
Chart of the week

Private credit loss rates don’t support draconian headlines

Direct lending loss rates compare favorably to much of the leveraged finance market, as this week’s chart shows.

Column chart that shows direct lending’s historical loss rate since 2005 compares favorably to many other parts of the leveraged finance markets. The direct lending loss rate of -1.03% is roughly in line with leveraged loans (0.92%), but below that of high yield bonds (-1.49%) and commercial and industrial bank loans (-2.30%).
May 17, 2024
By Research
2 minute read
Chart of the week

Private credit valuations proven conservative over time

Private credit investors’ realized losses have been about half that of unrealized markdowns during the past three periods of market stress.

Close up thumbnail of a column chart
Showing 1–6 insights out of 93 results

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