Chart of the week

Showing 25–30 insights out of 339 results
Chart of the week

U.S. middle market shows notably strong top-line growth

Private middle market firms continue to power the U.S. economy, driving higher revenue growth than that of small and large cap firms.

Column chart showing trailing 12-month revenue growth of constituents of the Russell 2000 Index (1.6%), the S&P 500 (6.2%) and the private U.S. middle market (12.9%). The strong revenue outperformance of private middle market firms speaks to the fundamental health of these companies relative to public small- and large-cap firms.
Chart of the week

As small caps return to favor, quality remains a concern

Markets have turned risk-on since the election, as investors again embrace small caps. But 43% of Russell 2000 companies generate negative earnings.

Line chart showing the percentage of Russell 2000 (small cap) companies that generate negative earnings. The percentage has gradually moved higher, from 14% in 1994, to 43% as of Q3 2024. The diminishing quality of public small cap companies highlights the larger shift in the investment opportunity set and suggests private markets may offer better access to firms with stronger growth prospects.
Chart of the week

Private credit yields remain attractive despite Fed rate cuts

Real yields on private credit could remain in their top historical quartile even if the Fed cuts another 75 basis points as markets expect.

Line chart showing private credit real (inflation adjusted) yield and forecasted real yield based on the market-implied forecast of the Fed funds rate through December 2025. Even if the Fed reduces rates by another 75bps by December 2025 as the market currently expects, a private credit real yield of approximately 7.7% would be higher than in 80% of cases throughout the market’s history.
Chart of the week

Middle market PE funds outperform through rate hike cycle

Middle market private equity has outperformed mega cap PE since the Fed began to raise rates. It remains well positioned amid a cloudy rate outlook.

Line chart showing private equity returns by fund size since the Fed rate hike campaign began. Performance has been inversely correlated to size as mega cap PE funds, which rely more heavily on leverage, have underperformed in an elevated rate environment. Middle market PE, which drives performance through fundamental improvements, has outperformed.
Chart of the week

Historically high valuations challenge equity returns

Stocks have generated paltry forward returns during historical periods when valuations have been as high as they are today.

Graph showing the S&P 500’s forward returns over the 1-, 2-, 3-, 5- and 10-year periods within each of the index’s price/earnings quintile. Historical returns have been meager when the index is in its most expensive quintile, as it is today, ranging from a maximum of 5% over the 1-year period to just 2% over the subsequent 10-year period.
Chart of the week

Direct lending volume grows amid increased LBO activity

Private credit has increasingly become the preferred source of financing for PE sponsors, with direct lending volume jumping 60% over last year’s level.

Column chart showing direct lending deal volume by month. A line shows the 3-month moving average which has trended higher this year. Direct lending deal volume of $231 billion through September 2024 represents a nearly 60% jump versus all of 2023, a sign that LBO/M&A activity has picked up in recent months.
Showing 25–30 insights out of 339 results

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