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Family offices plan material increase to private markets

This week’s chart looks at family office CIOs’ plans to increase allocation to alts in 2024, specifically private credit and private equity.

Private credit yields remain attractive despite Fed rate cuts

Real yields on private credit could remain in their top historical quartile even if the Fed cuts another 75 basis points as markets expect.

U.S. middle market shows notably strong top-line growth

Private middle market firms continue to power the U.S. economy, driving higher revenue growth than that of small and large cap firms.

As small caps return to favor, quality remains a concern

Markets have turned risk-on since the election, as investors again embrace small caps. But 43% of Russell 2000 companies generate negative earnings.

Middle market PE funds outperform through rate hike cycle

Middle market private equity has outperformed mega cap PE since the Fed began to raise rates. It remains well positioned amid a cloudy rate outlook.

Shrinking public markets mean growth in private markets

Take-private volume has outpaced IPO volume by 3.5x since 2022. This represents an accelerating shift in opportunity toward private markets.

Historically high valuations challenge equity returns

Stocks have generated paltry forward returns during historical periods when valuations have been as high as they are today.

Direct lending volume grows amid increased LBO activity

Private credit has increasingly become the preferred source of financing for PE sponsors, with direct lending volume jumping 60% over last year’s level.

Rising volatility expectations point to market anxiety

Expectations for equity and rate volatility spike amid increased election and rate anxiety.

Stock-bond correlation hits multi-decade high

Stock-bond correlation spiked in 2023 to a 40-year high. This week’s chart looks at how it exacerbates the diversification challenge.
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