Economic outlook

Q3 2020: Lift off?

Q3 starts off at a weaker place than any quarter since WWII as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic, but with reopening has come optimism.

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June 27, 2020 | 28 minute read

Executive summary

Q3 starts off at a weaker place than any quarter since WWII as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic, but with reopening has come optimism. There are important supports for our nascent recovery that could fuel a strong rebound in Q3. However, our economy also faces significant challenges that could intensify and impact growth later in 2020. Investors will need to navigate a vastly altered landscape of sky-high equity market valuations, continued uncertainty about the economic recovery and shrinking options to find income.

Key takeaways:

  • Reopening has spurred hope that the worst economic news is in the rearview mirror.
  • Lingering high unemployment could erode resilient consumer confidence.
  • Acute volatility could return, driven by looming uncertainty surrounding the pandemic.

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Lara Rhame

Chief U.S. Economist + Managing Director

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