Market Minute
Weekly analysis from the FS Investments Research team
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July 14, 2025
Equities
U.S. equities closed the week little changed despite a whirlwind week of news. Markets brushed Liberation Day Part 2 aside, reacting in a blasé manner to President Trump’s doubling down on tariff threats. The S&P 500 reached an all-time high of 6,290 Thurs before retreating Fri. Nvidia became the first company to reach the $4 trillion market cap figure as technology stocks and AI/ semiconductor beneficiaries continue to extend recent gains. Together with Microsoft, the two largest U.S. stocks are more valuable than every national equity market except the U.S and China.
Fixed income
Rates moved higher last week as tariff policy returned to the fore and economic data appeared solid. The 1-year inflation swap has moved up to 3.35% as markets discern both the level and the impact of import levies. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield ended the week north of 4.40%, up 6 bps on the week. Markets now price virtually no chance of a rate cut at the next FOMC meeting on July 30, and a 70% chance of a rate cut during Q3 overall. Credit markets declined slightly alongside equities, with higher rates driving underperformance in fixed-rate high yield bonds.
Commodities
Oil prices moved slightly higher as economic data portrayed a resilient U.S. economy and OPEC released its annual report. While the group lowered its medium-term estimates for oil demand – principally due to a weaker Chinse economy – they expect demand to grow through at least 2050. Gold rose slightly but has been rangebound since mid-April. Copper prices in the U.S. surged 8% after President Trump announced 50% tariffs on the metal. Bitcoin surged to a new record of $118,000 after two months lacking direction.
Economic overview
In a light week for economic data, weekly jobless claims stood out as the most salient indicator. Initial claims fell for a third consecutive week to 227k (Cons. 235k), a sigh of relief after a concerning uptrend in May and early June. The latest NY Fed household survey also showed lower concern over losing a job and higher likelihood of leaving voluntarily – both positive markers. Still, the overall Economic Surprise Index continues to move lower, a sign of caution for lofty equity valuations. CPI, PPI, and retail sales are all released this week.
Source: Bloomberg, as of 11:30am on July 11, 2025.