Insights

Macro

Q4 2024 Economic outlook: Landings are bumpy

Soft landing or hard landing? The economy is on approach, but policy uncertainty from the Fed and elections could make the landing bumpy.

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U.S. exceptionalism: At a crossroads

Can U.S. economic exceptionalism survive the transformations of our time? We offer analysis and a playbook for investing in a new era.

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Middle market resilience amid trade uncertainty?

The private U.S. middle market may represent a compelling opportunity as companies in this sector face less disruption from global supply chains.

Column chart showing the percentage of foreign revenues among S&P 500 companies (34%) and private U.S. middle market firms (16%), compared to exports as a percentage of U.S. gross domestic product (11%). Because U.S. middle market companies operate mostly within the confines of the U.S., they may represent an attractive opportunity as trade volatility whipsaws the S&P 500.

Tariffs: Four essential investor questions answered

In this research note, we address four essential questions on tariffs for investors, representing our latest insights into the situation. We run through the stated goals of tariff policy, possible economic effects and the investment impact for various asset classes.

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As Treasury yields rise, so has stock-bond correlation

Stock-bond correlation sits at a 75-year high today as the era of easy diversification may be over amid a higher-for-longer rate environment.

Line chart showing the 30-day rolling correlation between the S&P 500 and the Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index, paired with the 10-year Treasury yield, as stock-bond correlations have moved in tandem over the past year. Over a longer period, the rolling 3-year correlation between stocks and bonds began to spike in early 2002, as the Fed began to aggressively hike rates, and today sits at a 75-year high of 0.67

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Public market sentiment cools as challenges mount

Individual and professional investors have grown notably more bearish in February. The U.S. middle market may represent a reason to be bullish.

Line chart showing the increasingly bearish sentiment among retail investors (orange line) as a range of market challenges mount. The 10-year Treasury yield 10-year Treasury yield (black line) has risen meaningfully as investors expect rates to remain higher-for-longer. Investors cite elevated valuations and the political environment as other notable challenges.

The first weeks of Trump: What’s impacting markets?

Head of Public Policy Jason Cole examines the first weeks of the Trump administration and their implications for markets.

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