About this episode
In this quarterly outlook episode, Investment Research Directors Kara O’Halloran and Andrew Korz discuss the potential impacts of a slowing As we enter the second half of 2022, markets are moving rapidly, and macroeconomic conditions are underpinning the wide array of investment challenges. So, what’s an investor to do? In this episode, FS Chiron Funds CIO Ryan Caldwell and Chief U.S. Economist Lara Rhame explore key components of the current macroeconomic environment—from inflation and Fed policy to the underrecognized shift toward deglobalization and the impacts of capital spending. Plus, Ryan and Lara break down where the labor market may go and their outlooks for the U.S. dollar. All of this to say, today’s investors have a lot to consider.
Looking to dive deeper? Access the full 3D report here: https://fsinvestments.com/fs-insights/q2-2022-3d-report-low-vibration-to-earthquake/
[00:00:00] Ryan Caldwell:
Welcome to the 3D Report, a podcast by FS Investments. My name is Ryan Caldwell, and I am the CIO of the FS Chiron Funds. On today’s episode, we are discussing the third-quarter economic and market outlook with the Chief U.S. Economist here at FS, Lara Rhame.
[00:00:23] Ryan Caldwell:
What we thought we would do is maybe just a little bit of one-on-one time. Normally what we’ve done in these 3D podcasts and Caldwell hour is to have the whole team on. And I thought, Lara, maybe what we would do, is maybe have a little bit of a scrap. So, for our listeners, I have not, I’ve read some of Lara’s writings as of late, but we have not had sort of a pre-, if you will, podcast hash-out on sort of where her current thinking is, where her numbers are and sort of what she’s thinking about. Again, broad strokes. I know where her head is, but not specifics. And quite honestly, we haven’t shared a bunch of what’s going on in the portfolio, very, very short term, with her as well. And the reason I wanted to kind of frame it this way, actually Lara, was because so much of this year, and even I think so much of what’s likely to be the rest of the year is all actually just being driven by macro factors. Right? So really at this point, when we isolate down the world, and this is probably, will be part of the discussion, what’s interesting is most things fundamental. Quite honestly, aren’t driving the tape so much anymore.
[00:01:31] Ryan Caldwell:
It’s really coming down to macro factors and this, you know, kind of intersection that the world is very succinctly staring at. Inflation versus growth and can Fed thread the needle? Do we soft land? Do we hard land? And quite honestly, everything seems to be a bit of a slave to that outcome. So, what I thought maybe we would do, because I know Lara has hardcore dove into her numbers, kind of put things together and her thoughts for the back half of the year. So, I just wanted to kind of kick it off and go through it with her. Well, like I said, the audience will get it with me a little bit real time. And maybe some of this back and forth of maybe where the macros meeting, the equity tape, and the credit tape and some of the rates tape because we’ll go through all of that. So, Lara, that’s what I thought we’d do. I thought we’d just have a conversation. I want to see where your heads at.
[00:02:23] Lara Rhame:
Sounds great Ryan. Happy to share what’s going on.