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Chart of the week

Middle market optimism reaches new heights

Middle market business leaders’ economic optimism reached an all-time high in Q4 2024, even as potential uncertainty edged up.

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January 10, 2025 | 2 minute read

Global middle market business leader economic optimism, uncertainty

Line chart tracking optimism and uncertainty among global middle market business leaders since 2020. Over the past two years, middle market leaders’ optimism has grown from 60% to 76% as of Q4 2024. Uncertainty has trended modestly lower until the past quarter as leaders acknowledge the additional uncertainties a new U.S. administration could bring.

Source: Grant Thornton as of Q4 2024, latest data available.

  • 2025 begins on a broadly optimistic note that stretches across both investors and the business community.
    • According to the Conference Board’s latest survey, nearly 53% of consumers expect the stock market to increase again in 2025, just shy of its record high of 57.2%. 
    • Meanwhile, in November the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index rose to its highest reading since June 2021.
  • Global middle market business leaders fully share in the positive sentiment, with a record 76% feeling optimism about their economies.1 Within the U.S., that figure jumps to 88%.1
  • The data supports U.S. middle market leaders’ optimism, with revenue and employment growth among domestic middle market firms far outpacing those of their large-cap peers over the past two years.2
  • But the path forward is not all sanguine. Middle market business leaders also acknowledge rising uncertainties, especially as a new U.S. administration takes office.
  • Investing in the U.S. middle market may provide a unique opportunity for growth, income and diversification potential at a time when public equities sit near historically high valuations. Yet the combination of both rising optimism and increased uncertainty will require skilled management and diligent investment processes to unlock opportunities in 2025.

  • Grant Thornton’s Q4 2024 International Business Report.

  • National Center for the Middle Market, as of Q2 2024, latest data available.

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