Research report

Q3 2023 3D Report: The real world

The Treasury Department’s issuance of a significant amount of debt in July caused a profound shock to bond markets and left investors questioning the U.S. fiscal position.

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November 8, 2023

“I wish the real world
would just stop
hasslin’ me.”

— Matchbox Twenty

July 31, 2023, might have been the most important day of the year for Wall Street. This was the day the Treasury Department announced the funding schedule for the government for the second half of the year. The shock to the bond market was profound. The Treasury would be issuing a significant amount of debt—much more than the market had expected.

This was the day the Real World would start to hassle market participants. It was also the day the bill for the CARES Act, the Build Back Better Act, the Chips Act and the Inflation Reduction Act began to come due. Between fiscal and monetary stimulus, COVID “cost” the U.S. taxpayer $13.4 trillion and Treasury’s announcement made it clear that starting in the second half, the market would start questioning the U.S. fiscal position.

This information is educational in nature and does not constitute a financial promotion, investment advice or an inducement or incitement to participate in any product, offering or investment. FS Investments is not adopting, making a recommendation for or endorsing any investment strategy or particular security. All views, opinions and positions expressed herein are that of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views, opinions or positions of FS Investments. All opinions are subject to change without notice, and you should always obtain current information and perform due diligence before participating in any investment. FS Investments does not provide legal or tax advice and the information herein should not be considered legal or tax advice. Tax laws and regulations are complex and subject to change, which can materially impact any investment result. FS Investments cannot guarantee that the information herein is accurate, complete, or timely. FS Investments makes no warranties with regard to such information or results obtained by its use, and disclaims any liability arising out of your use of, or any tax position taken in reliance on, such information.

Any projections, forecasts and estimates contained herein are based upon certain assumptions that the author considers reasonable. Projections are necessarily speculative in nature, and it can be expected that some or all of the assumptions underlying the projections will not materialize or will vary significantly from actual results. The inclusion of projections herein should not be regarded as a representation or guarantee regarding the reliability, accuracy or completeness of the information contained herein, and neither FS Investments nor the author are under any obligation to update or keep current such information.

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Ryan Caldwell

Managing Director, FS Investments

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