The 3D Report: Q3 2022—Sympathy for the devil

In this episode, FS Chiron Funds CIO Ryan Caldwell and Chief U.S. Economist Lara Rhame discuss the latest news and events shaping the global investment backdrop.

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December 12, 2022 | 58 minute read

The globalized world that has long been the secular driver of capital markets has now become more fragmented and regionalized.

In the latest episode of the 3D Report, FS Chiron Funds CIO Ryan Caldwell is joined by Chief U.S. Economist Lara Rhame to analyze the shifting circumstances across the markets today and discuss key components affecting the global macroeconomy, such as inflation, volatility and monetary policy.

Transcript excerpt:

[00:00:00] Ryan Caldwell: That just seems like where we’re going back to that is not 23 times forward earnings, right? The peak we got through in June of 2021, like that month monster’s over. So, I think…

[00:00:12] Lara Rhame: …Like add zero lower bounds. Yeah.

[00:00:14] Ryan Caldwell: That is the key point.

[00:00:24] Ryan Caldwell: I’d like to thank everybody for joining the FS Chiron 3D Report podcast. We do this quarterly. I am joined by my colleague Lara Rhame, and this is Ryan Caldwell, CIO at FS Chiron Funds. Lara is our Chief Economist, and this becomes sort of my podcast partner, if you will…

[00:00:46] Lara Rhame: Partner in crime.

[00:00:47] Ryan Caldwell: Yeah, definitely in crime, particularly this year. And so, we thought who we would do is, maybe give a quick review, or at least I’ll kind of set up what I wrote about and then I want to get a little bit more specific about [00:01:00] probably what our listeners care about as opposed to what I wrote about. And then we go from there. And that’s why we’ve got Lara here.

[00:01:05] Ryan Caldwell: I mean, I think maybe to kinda just reset the table. We’ve done this a couple of times this year just talking about…There are times when markets are very fundamentally driven and there’s times when markets are very macro driven, and I think there is an art and understanding where you are in that analysis.

[00:01:24] Ryan Caldwell: And so, we are standing very clearly on the side that the macro factors are about the only thing that matters now. And I think if you’re using, company, bottom-up company fundamentals to try to make a call at this point, it’s incredibly difficult because quite honestly what we continue to see progress is that management teams have as little or no insight as anybody making forecasts at this point. And quite honestly, they might be worse, just given the confluence of the way revenues, margins and earnings are all coming together. Again, this is a very weird setup, even for a management team. And again, almost in the [00:02:00] tail, but maybe the, to kinda kick off the quarter, you know what I had wrote in the quarter and it was a little bit affected about, by the way, the quarter ended.

[00:02:09] Ryan Caldwell: And Lara, you’ll laugh. I titled the piece, Sympathy for the Devil. And I’m not sure most people understand the reference, which is a great old Rolling Stone song about all the different huge inflection points in history and some of the nuances of those inflections through history. And again, whether the devil was involved.

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Ryan Caldwell

Managing Director, FS Investments

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