Charted territory: Mixed market signals

The economic outlook is highly uncertain. Our quantitative team analyzes what markets are signaling about a possible recession, and what false signals may need to be actively managed.

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September 22, 2023 | 10 minute read

The economic outlook remains highly uncertain. The Fed’s aggressive rate hike cycle in 2022, coupled with surging inflation, pushed expectations of recession up at the start of 2023. But then a resilient economy caught markets, and forecasters, by surprise.

Market expectations have reeled from pessimism, to hope of a soft landing, to optimism of no landing at all. So, it’s a perfect time to look past the subjective forecasters and check in on what markets can tell us about the arch of the business cycle.

Read the complete playbook to learn more.

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Andrew Korz, CFA

Executive Director, Investment Research

Brian Cho, CFA

Managing Director, Head of Quantitative Research, FS Chiron Funds

Lara Rhame

Chief U.S. Economist + Managing Director

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