The economic outlook remains highly uncertain. The Fed’s aggressive rate hike cycle in 2022, coupled with surging inflation, pushed expectations of recession up at the start of 2023. But then a resilient economy caught markets, and forecasters, by surprise.
Market expectations have reeled from pessimism, to hope of a soft landing, to optimism of no landing at all. So, it’s a perfect time to look past the subjective forecasters and check in on what markets can tell us about the arch of the business cycle.