Everything about this business cycle seems to be happening in fast forward. In 2022, two quarters of contraction caused people to discuss recession—albeit prematurely. Massive inventory swings have muddled headline GDP data. Surging and ebbing inflation, the fastest Fed rate hike cycle since the 1980s and a banking crisis have all happened much earlier in an expansion than we have seen in decades.
Since the 1990s, business cycles have traced a familiar pattern. Our playbook explores why this cycle may be different and why traditional investments may not get the significant easing cycle that has fueled outsized returns over the past decades.