Charted territory: Playbook for a unique business cycle

The arc of this business cycle remains highly uncertain. We dig into this unique economy and the market forces that will need to be managed into 2024 and beyond.

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August 31, 2023 | 5 minute read

Everything about this business cycle seems to be happening in fast forward. In 2022, two quarters of contraction caused people to discuss recessionalbeit prematurely. Massive inventory swings have muddled headline GDP data. Surging and ebbing inflation, the fastest Fed rate hike cycle since the 1980s and a banking crisis have all happened much earlier in an expansion than we have seen in decades.

Since the 1990s, business cycles have traced a familiar pattern. Our playbook explores why this cycle may be different and why traditional investments may not get the significant easing cycle that has fueled outsized returns over the past decades.

Read the complete playbook to learn more.

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Lara Rhame

Chief U.S. Economist + Managing Director

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