Alternatives Archives

Alternatives

Is private credit a bubble?

Private credit has grown in both size and breadth, prompting questions around the risks of the asset class and whether it could represent a bubble. We address those concerns in this note.

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Investor sentiment outpacing earnings?

Investor sentiment has raced to all-time highs. Could investors be overlooking potential volatility drivers, including moderating earnings forecasts?

Line chart contrasting the S&P 500’s relatively straight path higher this year with earnings forecasts for 2025, which have clearly decelerated during recent months.

Post-election strategy note—part II: Encore, laissez les bon temps rouler

Let the good times roll for private credit, senior commercial real estate lending and liquid multi-strategy funds.

Bond performance has improved, but volatility remains

Large monthly swings in core fixed income continue to rattle investors, calling into question its traditional role as a portfolio ballast.

Chart showing monthly and annual returns for the Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Index. While the index’s annual return has seen a solid recovery since its low point in 2022, the volatility of its monthly returns has picked up. The Agg has averaged 2% moves per month since the start of 2022 compared to an average of just 0.7% per month from 2015–2019.

The Takeaway with Troy Gayeski: Replacing fixed income

Our Chief Market Strategist dives into his latest strategy note on how investors can replace or complement fixed income with alternatives.

Private credit is a small fraction of the U.S. credit market

In contrast to the headlines, the primary story in private credit is the change in market share, not the change in market size.

$Column chart showing major corporate credit markets by size. The chart highlights how small the private credit market remains, despite it accounting for outsized press over the past year. Private credit represents approximately $1.25 trillion in the U.S. and $2 trillion globally, which represents a fraction of the investment grade ($9 trillion) and bank loan ($11 trillion) markets.$