Insights

Alternatives

Is private credit a bubble?
Private credit has grown in both size and breadth, prompting questions around the risks of the asset class and whether it could represent a bubble. We address those concerns in this note.

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Showing 1–6 insights out of 143 results
Nov 20, 2024
By Research
Playbook

Mapping the markets: Q4 2024

Our Investment Research team compiled their best charts and latest market analysis across macroeconomics, public markets and private market strategies to help our clients map today’s markets.

Nov 8, 2024
By Research
2 minute read
Chart of the week

Private credit yields remain attractive despite Fed rate cuts

Real yields on private credit could remain in their top historical quartile even if the Fed cuts another 75 basis points as markets expect.

Line chart showing private credit real (inflation adjusted) yield and forecasted real yield based on the market-implied forecast of the Fed funds rate through December 2025. Even if the Fed reduces rates by another 75bps by December 2025 as the market currently expects, a private credit real yield of approximately 7.7% would be higher than in 80% of cases throughout the market’s history.
Nov 5, 2024
By Troy Gayeski
10 minute read
Strategy note

Replacing or complementing fixed income with alternatives

Our Chief Market Strategist examines how investors can replace/complement fixed income with alternatives.

Nov 1, 2024
By Research
2 minute read
Chart of the week

Middle market PE funds outperform through rate hike cycle

Middle market private equity has outperformed mega cap PE since the Fed began to raise rates. It remains well positioned amid a cloudy rate outlook.

Line chart showing private equity returns by fund size since the Fed rate hike campaign began. Performance has been inversely correlated to size as mega cap PE funds, which rely more heavily on leverage, have underperformed in an elevated rate environment. Middle market PE, which drives performance through fundamental improvements, has outperformed.
Oct 25, 2024
By Research
2 minute read
Chart of the week

Historically high valuations challenge equity returns

Stocks have generated paltry forward returns during historical periods when valuations have been as high as they are today.

Graph showing the S&P 500’s forward returns over the 1-, 2-, 3-, 5- and 10-year periods within each of the index’s price/earnings quintile. Historical returns have been meager when the index is in its most expensive quintile, as it is today, ranging from a maximum of 5% over the 1-year period to just 2% over the subsequent 10-year period.
Oct 17, 2024
By Research
30 minute read
Outlooks

Private markets outlook: Refilling the glass

As we approach the end of 2024, sparks of life are emerging in private markets, fueling optimism for improved liquidity and a revitalized investment landscape.
Showing 1–6 insights out of 143 results

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