Market commentary

Despite stock prices that remain well below early 2020 levels, midstream earnings expectations have held up well.

Credit markets climbed steadily higher throughout a relatively quiet August, with HY Bonds and Senior Secured Loans returning 0.98% and 1.49%, respectively. Interest rates rose throughout the month following the Fed’s inflation policy shift, sending the duration-sensitive Barclays Agg down -0.81%.

The recovery in markets continued in July as optimism surrounding reopening and further stimulus measures outweighed fears of rising cases. HY Bonds and Senior Secured Loans returned 4.78% and 1.96%, respectively. Interest rates fell steadily throughout the month, boosting the duration-sensitive Barclays Agg, which returned 1.25%.

The rebound in energy markets has sputtered over the past two months. Global crude production is likely to increase in the coming months, which could test oil prices previously stabilized by unprecedented supply cuts.

Concerns over spikes in COVID-19 cases weighed on energy sentiment in June. As global crude supply remains muted, further recovery in oil prices hinges on the return of demand in the U.S., the world’s largest energy consumer.

The recovery in markets continued in June, but at a slower pace amid concerns over rising COVID cases. HY Bonds and Senior Secured Loans still ended the month up, returning 0.97% and 1.14%, respectively, capping off the best quarter for each market since Q3 2009. Interest rates spiked early in the month before declining slightly, and the duration-sensitive Barclays Agg returned 0.63%.