Q3 2022 Economic outlook: It will be a grind
The Fed is once again faced with tough choices amid waning consumer sentiment and rising inflation. We examine key indicators to help determine if and when the U.S. may enter a recession.
Q2 2022 Economic outlook: Into or around the storm?
The economy has momentum as we enter Q2, but markets are pricing in risks as policy uncertainty, an inverting yield curve, rising inflation and pessimistic consumer sentiment loom.
Chief U.S. Economist Lara Rhame’s 10 for ‘22
2022 will be a balancing act between solid growth, surging inflation and policy uncertainty. Read our watchlist for 10 big ideas on the economy, the Fed and markets.
Q4 2021: Recalibrating expectations
Our fast-moving recovery is steering into headwinds from policy, global growth uncertainty and pandemic-related supply disruptions. With valuations high across the board, markets enter Q4 with healthy growth, but waning tailwinds.
Q3 2021: Zooming in on inflation
Inflation is dominating the economic discussion, and with good reason. Rising inflation and the Fed’s hawkish pivot have critical implications for interest rates and investors.
Q2 2021: Almost home
Though pandemic-related challenges remain, economic optimism is in the air and growth is expected to surge. In Q2, we are so close to coming full circle on this unprecedented economic cycle.