Market minute

Market minute

Market minute

Weekly analysis from the FS Investments Research team
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March 18, 2024

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Equities

The stock rally stalled as markets reacted to higher interest rates. Small and mid-cap stocks were hit particularly hard, with the Russell 2000 down -2.08%. While the S&P 500 slid
-0.13% on the week, it has gone a relatively long time without a meaningful drawdown and is still up 25% since it troughed in late October. Small cap performance has lagged the S&P 500 by about 650 bps so far this year.

Fixed income

Hotter than expected inflation data cooled hopes of a Fed rate cut in the near future and sent yields broadly higher. The 10-year rose 23 bps on the week to 4.31%, while the 2-year rose 25 bps to 4.72%. No rate cut is expected at the FOMC announcement on Wednesday of this week, but the new dot plot and fresh economic projections will be critical for markets which still expect three rate cuts in 2024. Markets are now split on June rate cut prospects. The Bloomberg Agg plunged -1.23%, while high yield fared better, down -0.24%, and leveraged loans eked out a gain.

Commodities

Crude prices rose nearly 4% last week, driven by reduced U.S. stockpiles combined with renewed geopolitical pressures as Ukrainian forces escalated their attacks on Russian oil refineries. Oil prices rose above $80/bbl to end the week at $81.04 for the first time in four months. Adding to the week’s bullish tone, the IEA increased its demand outlook for 2024 and noted that the market could fall into a supply deficit this year if OPEC+ member nations extend their production cuts as expected.

Economic overview

Inflation data delivered another upside surprise in February, further throwing cold water on Fed rate cut prospects. Consumer prices rose 0.4% m/m in February, and 0.4% when food and energy were excluded, versus the expected 0.3% gain. CPI edged up to 3.2% y/y in February and has stalled above 3% – it has averaged has averaged 3.3% since June of last year. Goods inflation is hovering around zero, but services inflation remains stubbornly high, and was 5.2% in February. Producer prices were also hotter than expected, as PPI final demand rose 0.6% m/m, double the 0.3% expected. Retail sales were softer than expected in February, and rose only 0.3% m/m when autos were excluded.


Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, March 15, 2024.

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Equities
S&P 500: Leading single benchmark of large-cap U.S. equities, representing approximately 500 of the largest U.S. companies. Dow Jones Industrial Average: Price-weighted measure of 30 U.S. blue-chip companies. NASDAQ: Stock market index of stocks listed on the NASDAQ. Index is heavily weighted toward technology companies. Russell 2000: Index measuring performance of approximately 2,000 small-cap U.S. equities. MSCI World Index: Broad global equity benchmark including both developed and emerging markets. MSCI Europe Index: Equity benchmark that measures the performance of large and mid-cap equities across 15 developed countries in Europe. MSCI EAFE Index: Equity benchmark that represents the performance of large and mid-cap securities across 21 developed markets, including countries in Europe, Australasia and the Far East. MSCI Asia Index: Equity benchmark that captures large and mid-cap representation across developed market countries and emerging market countries in Asia. MSCI Emerging Markets Index: Equity benchmark representing 24 developing or emerging market countries, representing 10% of world market cap. For more info on these MSCI indices, visit MSCI.com. CBOE Volatility Index (VIX): Key measure of market expectations of near-term volatility conveyed by S&P 500 stock option price.

Credit
Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Aggregate Bond Index: Broad-based flagship benchmark that measures the investment grade, U.S. dollar-denominated, fixed-rate taxable bond market. Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Corporate Index: Measures the USD-denominated, investment-grade, fixed-rate bond market. Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Corporate High Yield Index: Measures the USD-denominated, high yield, fixed-rate bond market. S&P/LSTA U.S. Leveraged Loan Index: Market value-weighted index designed to measure the performance of the U.S. leveraged loan market.

Alternatives
FTSE NAREIT All Equity REITs Index: Free-float adjusted market cap-weighted index that includes all tax-qualified REITs listed in the NYSE, AMEX, and NASDAQ. S&P GSCI: First major investable commodity index. It is one of the most widely recognized benchmarks that is broad-based and production-weighted to represent the global commodity market beta. Alerian MLP Index: Leading gauge of energy MLPs, representing about 85% of total industry market cap. HFRX Global Hedge Fund Index: Index designed to be representative of the overall composition of the hedge fund universe, comprised of all eligible hedge fund strategies.

Commodities
Generic 1st Crude Oil (WTI Crude): Front-month West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures. Generic 1st Brent Crude Oil (Brent Crude): Front-month Brent Crude futures. Generic 1st Natural Gas: Front-month natural gas futures. Generic 1st Gold, 100 oz: Front-month gold (100 oz) futures.

Currency
Dollar Spot Index: Indicates the general international value of the USD by averaging the exchange rates between the USD and major world currencies. USDCNY: price of 1 USD in CNY (the Chinese renminbi, or yuan). Bitcoin: price of 1 Bitcoin in USD.

Spreads
Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Corporate Index: Measures the USD-denominated, investment grade, fixed-rate, taxable bond market. Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Corporate High Yield Index: Measures the USD-denominated, high yield, fixed-rate bond market. Bloomberg S&P/LSTA U.S. Leveraged Loan Index: Market value-weighted index designed to measure the performance of the U.S. leveraged loan market. Barclays EM USD Aggregate Index: Flagship hard currency emerging market debt benchmark that includes USD-denominated debt from sovereign, quasi-sovereign and corporate EM issuers.

Interest rates
Fed funds target: Target rate for the federal funds policy rate, set by the Federal Reserve each meeting. This rate is an “overnight rate,” i.e., it is the rate charged by depository institutions (banks) to each other for overnight loans. SOFR: Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) measures the cost of borrowing cash overnight collateralized by Treasuries. ICE 3-Month London Interbank Offered Rate (LIBOR): Average interest rate at which leading banks borrow funds of a sizable amount from other banks in the London market. LIBOR is the most widely used “benchmark” or reference rate for short-term interest rates. Treasury rates: Market yields for U.S. Treasury securities with maturities of 2, 10 and 30 years. Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Aggregate Bond Index: Broad-based flagship benchmark that measures the investment grade, U.S. dollar-denominated, fixed-rate taxable bond market. Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Corporate Index: Measures the USD-denominated, investment grade, fixed-rate, taxable bond market. Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Corporate High Yield Index: Measures the USD-denominated, high yield, fixed-rate bond market.

Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), Department of Labor, Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), International Monetary Fund (IMF), OECD, Federal Reserve, Institute for Supply Management (ISM), Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA), U.S. Census Bureau, Standard & Poor’s, Bank of America Merrill Lynch, Bloomberg, Macrobond.

This information is educational in nature and does not constitute a financial promotion, investment advice or an inducement or incitement to participate in any product, offering or investment. FS Investments is not adopting, making a recommendation for or endorsing any investment strategy or particular security. All views, opinions and positions expressed herein are that of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views, opinions or positions of FS Investments. All opinions are subject to change without notice, and you should always obtain current information and perform due diligence before participating in any investment. FS Investments does not provide legal or tax advice and the information herein should not be considered legal or tax advice. Tax laws and regulations are complex and subject to change, which can materially impact any investment result. FS Investments cannot guarantee that the information herein is accurate, complete, or timely. FS Investments makes no warranties with regard to such information or results obtained by its use, and disclaims any liability arising out of your use of, or any tax position taken in reliance on, such information.

Any projections, forecasts and estimates contained herein are based upon certain assumptions that the author considers reasonable. Projections are necessarily speculative in nature, and it can be expected that some or all of the assumptions underlying the projections will not materialize or will vary significantly from actual results. The inclusion of projections herein should not be regarded as a representation or guarantee regarding the reliability, accuracy or completeness of the information contained herein, and neither FS Investments nor the author are under any obligation to update or keep current such information.

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