Economic outlook

Q4 2022 Economic outlook: Struggling for a foothold

Chief U.S. Economist Lara Rhame examines the potential paths for investors amid Q4’s mounting economic uncertainties.

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October 7, 2022 | 11 minute read

In Q4, uncertainty has a name: Fed policy. As monetary policy becomes increasingly data dependent, market volatility around inflation and jobs data could get more acute. Economic growth is already struggling for a foothold as this business cycle traces a unique trajectory. In the final months of 2022, we look at how investors can position portfolios against a macro backdrop that has pummeled traditional assets.


Lara Rhame explores the ways investors can navigate Q4’s complex macro backdrop.

Key takeaways

  • The Fed has surprised markets by moving faster and higher than expected. We anticipate uncertainty around peak hawkishness to continue to rock markets in Q4.
  • Inflation is at the epicenter of this uncertainty. While select relief may be in sight in some sectors, we expect the year-over-year inflation to remain elevated in Q4 and into 2023.
  • In addition, geopolitics, the strong dollar and global growth headwinds may be unlikely to offer a catalyst for much recovery in traditional assets after a brutal first three quarters.

This information is educational in nature and does not constitute a financial promotion, investment advice or an inducement or incitement to participate in any product, offering or investment. FS Investments is not adopting, making a recommendation for or endorsing any investment strategy or particular security. All views, opinions and positions expressed herein are that of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views, opinions or positions of FS Investments. All opinions are subject to change without notice, and you should always obtain current information and perform due diligence before participating in any investment. FS Investments does not provide legal or tax advice and the information herein should not be considered legal or tax advice. Tax laws and regulations are complex and subject to change, which can materially impact any investment result. FS Investments cannot guarantee that the information herein is accurate, complete, or timely. FS Investments makes no warranties with regard to such information or results obtained by its use, and disclaims any liability arising out of your use of, or any tax position taken in reliance on, such information.

Any projections, forecasts and estimates contained herein are based upon certain assumptions that the author considers reasonable. Projections are necessarily speculative in nature, and it can be expected that some or all of the assumptions underlying the projections will not materialize or will vary significantly from actual results. The inclusion of projections herein should not be regarded as a representation or guarantee regarding the reliability, accuracy or completeness of the information contained herein, and neither FS Investments nor the author are under any obligation to update or keep current such information.

All investing is subject to risk, including the possible loss of the money you invest.

Andrew Korz, CFA

Executive Director, Investment Research

Lara Rhame

Chief U.S. Economist + Managing Director

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