Lara is Chief U.S. Economist and Managing Director on the Investment Research team at FS Investments, where she analyzes developments in the global and U.S. economy and financial markets. Her fresh take on macroeconomic issues helps to inform and develop the firm’s long-term views on the economy, investment trends and issues facing investors. Lara is committed to the Philadelphia community and serves on the boards of the Economy League of Greater Philadelphia, Hyperion Bank and Starr Garden Park.
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A potentially dangerous curve
If the yield curve inverts, will a recession follow? Not necessarily, given how far from normal the current expansion and Fed rate hike cycle are. We believe investors should instead watch out for volatility sparked by recession fears and prepare for especially challenged traditional income sources.
Q3 2018: Slowing potential growth
Economy on solid footing, but risks abound.
Q3 2018: Low yields
Economy on solid footing, but risks abound.
Q2 2018: Growth is climbing, income still challenged
Today’s economic landscape may challenge the performance of traditional investments going forward. Recent positive cyclical momentum looks set to continue for some time, but long-term structural headwinds remain firmly entrenched. Despite strong growth, low interest rates could challenge investors throughout 2018 and beyond.
Strong economic growth but rising risks in 2018
Sustained above-trend growth raises the risk of meaningfully higher volatility, something which has already caught investors by surprise in 2018. What factors are causing positive momentum and are they set to continue?
All smoke, no fire: What’s behind recent equity market valuations?
Few explanations for the upward march of equity valuations are based on resoundingly positive or long-term economic changes. We take a closer look at how these high valuations could be closely tied to the multi-year surge in liquidity.