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Historically high valuations challenge equity returns

Stocks have generated paltry forward returns during historical periods when valuations have been as high as they are today.

Direct lending volume grows amid increased LBO activity

Private credit has increasingly become the preferred source of financing for PE sponsors, with direct lending volume jumping 60% over last year’s level.

Rising volatility expectations point to market anxiety

Expectations for equity and rate volatility spike amid increased election and rate anxiety.

Stock-bond correlation hits multi-decade high

Stock-bond correlation spiked in 2023 to a 40-year high. This week’s chart looks at how it exacerbates the diversification challenge.

Cash attractiveness may have peaked in 2023

Cash was an attractive, safe asset last year amid elevated rates. This week’s chart looks at why the tide may be changing.

Will a rate-dependent equity market become a headwind?

Could last year’s market tailwind turn into this year’s headwind? This week’s chart looks at stocks and rates’ tandem moves over the past year.

Equity market to remain rate dependent in 2024?

This week’s chart finds the bulk of the S&P’s returns last year came on days when rates fell. So far, 2024 has followed a similar pattern.

Despite Fed pause, financial conditions tighten further

Despite expectations for a Fed pause, this week’s chart looks at other financial conditions, which have tightened significantly in recent months.

Falling equity yields predicting too rosy a scenario?

As the equity premium has declined, stocks may not be compensating investors given today’s macro risks.

Recession or not, equity return backdrop is challenged

Stocks have seen strong year-to-date (YTD) returns, but high valuations portend challenges ahead as this week’s chart shows.
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