Insights

Macro

Charted territory: Playbook for a new stock-bond correlation regime
The positive correlation between stocks and bonds has broken a 20-year trend of low-maintenance diversification. We argue this is not a cyclical anomaly but the start of a new regime.

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Showing 1–6 insights out of 119 results
Oct 25, 2024
By Research
2 minute read
Chart of the week

Historically high valuations challenge equity returns

Stocks have generated paltry forward returns during historical periods when valuations have been as high as they are today.

Graph showing the S&P 500’s forward returns over the 1-, 2-, 3-, 5- and 10-year periods within each of the index’s price/earnings quintile. Historical returns have been meager when the index is in its most expensive quintile, as it is today, ranging from a maximum of 5% over the 1-year period to just 2% over the subsequent 10-year period.
Sep 5, 2024
By Lara Rhame
5 minute read
Playbook

Mapping the markets: Q3 2024

We synthesize the latest analysis on macroeconomics, public markets and alternative strategies.
Aug 16, 2024
By Research
2 minute read
Chart of the week

Election anxiety comes into focus for markets

This week’s chart highlights perceived market drivers over the next 30 days. Notably, the downside drivers outweigh the upside.

Column chart showing the results of a poll surveying investment managers’ views on market drivers over the next 30 days. Results were decidedly bearish, with the political environment and equity valuations among the largest expected drivers of negative returns. These factors more than offset supportive central bank policies and equity fundamentals in participants’ views.
Aug 9, 2024
By Research
2 minute read
Chart of the week

Recent market volatility just the beginning?

Volatility spiked this week as macro questions came to the fore. If history is any guide, volatility could remain elevated as the election heats up.

Line chart showing expected volatility in rates (orange line) and equity markets (black line) steadily rising in the two months before U.S. Presidential elections from 1992 through 2020 and dropping once again after the election has been decided.
Jul 26, 2024
By Research
2 minute read
Chart of the week

A challenged 60/40 highlights the need for alts

The 60/40 may have thrived in the past, but today, alternative investments appear better-positioned across these four key metrics.

Jul 19, 2024
By Research
2 minute read
Chart of the week

Cash left behind amid rapid market rotation?

Money market fund AUM is rising, even as yields decline, setting up an environment where investors could be subject to significant opportunity cost.

Line chart showing money market funds assets under management growing steadily since January 2023, from $4.9 trillion to just over $6.1 trillion as of July 2024. While investors have been plowing money into cash, Treasury yields have stepped down -55 basis points since mid-April. Declining inflation readings suggest cash could also become less attractive.
Showing 1–6 insights out of 119 results

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