Chart of the week

Showing 13–18 insights out of 109 results
Nov 8, 2024
By Research
2 minute read
Chart of the week

Private credit yields remain attractive despite Fed rate cuts

Real yields on private credit could remain in their top historical quartile even if the Fed cuts another 75 basis points as markets expect.

Line chart showing private credit real (inflation adjusted) yield and forecasted real yield based on the market-implied forecast of the Fed funds rate through December 2025. Even if the Fed reduces rates by another 75bps by December 2025 as the market currently expects, a private credit real yield of approximately 7.7% would be higher than in 80% of cases throughout the market’s history.
Nov 1, 2024
By Research
2 minute read
Chart of the week

Middle market PE funds outperform through rate hike cycle

Middle market private equity has outperformed mega cap PE since the Fed began to raise rates. It remains well positioned amid a cloudy rate outlook.

Line chart showing private equity returns by fund size since the Fed rate hike campaign began. Performance has been inversely correlated to size as mega cap PE funds, which rely more heavily on leverage, have underperformed in an elevated rate environment. Middle market PE, which drives performance through fundamental improvements, has outperformed.
Oct 25, 2024
By Research
2 minute read
Chart of the week

Historically high valuations challenge equity returns

Stocks have generated paltry forward returns during historical periods when valuations have been as high as they are today.

Graph showing the S&P 500’s forward returns over the 1-, 2-, 3-, 5- and 10-year periods within each of the index’s price/earnings quintile. Historical returns have been meager when the index is in its most expensive quintile, as it is today, ranging from a maximum of 5% over the 1-year period to just 2% over the subsequent 10-year period.
Oct 11, 2024
By Research
2 minute read
Chart of the week

Rising volatility expectations point to market anxiety

Expectations for equity and rate volatility spike amid increased election and rate anxiety.

Line chart that shows measures of expected rate (MOVE) and equity (VIX) volatility since June 2023. Both measures have been elevated since Q2 2024 but spiked in October amid increased investor anxiety surrounding the election and a shifting Fed rate outlook.
Oct 4, 2024
By Research
2 minute read
Chart of the week

Shrinking public markets mean growth in private markets

Take-private volume has outpaced IPO volume by 3.5x since 2022. This represents an accelerating shift in opportunity toward private markets.

Column chart showing the IPO- and take-private volume by year. Since 2022, take-private volume has outpaced IPO volume by more than 3.5x, highlighting a trend in which the number of publicly traded firms has halved, from about 8,000 to 4,000 since the mid-1990s, while the opportunity set within private markets has seen corresponding growth.
Sep 27, 2024
By Research
2 minute read
Chart of the week

Middle market at the center of U.S. job growth

With employment data in focus, the middle market has shined, outpacing job growth in small and large-cap firms by more than double.

Showing 13–18 insights out of 109 results

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