Chart of the week

Showing 1–6 insights out of 100 results
Dec 20, 2024
By Research
2 minute read
Chart of the week

Investor sentiment outpacing earnings?

Investor sentiment has raced to all-time highs. Could investors be overlooking potential volatility drivers, including moderating earnings forecasts?

Line chart contrasting the S&P 500’s relatively straight path higher this year with earnings forecasts for 2025, which have clearly decelerated during recent months.
Dec 13, 2024
By Research
2 minute read
Chart of the week

Bond performance has improved, but volatility remains

Large monthly swings in core fixed income continue to rattle investors, calling into question its traditional role as a portfolio ballast.

Chart showing monthly and annual returns for the Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Index. While the index’s annual return has seen a solid recovery since its low point in 2022, the volatility of its monthly returns has picked up. The Agg has averaged 2% moves per month since the start of 2022 compared to an average of just 0.7% per month from 2015–2019.
Dec 6, 2024
By Research
2 minute read
Chart of the week

Private credit is a small fraction of the U.S. credit market

In contrast to the headlines, the primary story in private credit is the change in market share, not the change in market size.

Column chart showing major corporate credit markets by size. The chart highlights how small the private credit market remains, despite it accounting for outsized press over the past year. Private credit represents approximately $1.25 trillion in the U.S. and $2 trillion globally, which represents a fraction of the investment grade ($9 trillion) and bank loan ($11 trillion) markets.
Nov 8, 2024
By Research
2 minute read
Chart of the week

Private credit yields remain attractive despite Fed rate cuts

Real yields on private credit could remain in their top historical quartile even if the Fed cuts another 75 basis points as markets expect.

Line chart showing private credit real (inflation adjusted) yield and forecasted real yield based on the market-implied forecast of the Fed funds rate through December 2025. Even if the Fed reduces rates by another 75bps by December 2025 as the market currently expects, a private credit real yield of approximately 7.7% would be higher than in 80% of cases throughout the market’s history.
Nov 1, 2024
By Research
2 minute read
Chart of the week

Middle market PE funds outperform through rate hike cycle

Middle market private equity has outperformed mega cap PE since the Fed began to raise rates. It remains well positioned amid a cloudy rate outlook.

Line chart showing private equity returns by fund size since the Fed rate hike campaign began. Performance has been inversely correlated to size as mega cap PE funds, which rely more heavily on leverage, have underperformed in an elevated rate environment. Middle market PE, which drives performance through fundamental improvements, has outperformed.
Oct 25, 2024
By Research
2 minute read
Chart of the week

Historically high valuations challenge equity returns

Stocks have generated paltry forward returns during historical periods when valuations have been as high as they are today.

Graph showing the S&P 500’s forward returns over the 1-, 2-, 3-, 5- and 10-year periods within each of the index’s price/earnings quintile. Historical returns have been meager when the index is in its most expensive quintile, as it is today, ranging from a maximum of 5% over the 1-year period to just 2% over the subsequent 10-year period.
Showing 1–6 insights out of 100 results

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