Chart of the week

Showing 1–6 insights out of 109 results
May 16, 2025
By Research
2 minute read
Chart of the week

Rising term premium a caution sign for markets

The elevated Treasury term premium may reflect growing concern over U.S. debt levels and geopolitical tensions.

Line chart showing the 10-year Treasury yield and the 10-year Treasury term premium over the past decade. The recent rise in the Treasury yield has been driven by an increase in the term premium, which had been negative throughout most of the past decade. The term premium shows the additional yield investors demand to hold longer-dated Treasuries instead of rolling short-term T- bills. Its recent rise may reflect growing concerns over rising U.S. debt levels and geopolitical tensions.
May 9, 2025
By Research
2 minute read
Chart of the week

Public markets take a winding, volatile roundtrip in 2025

Despite significant volatility this year, markets have yet to price in any meaningful economic slowdown, posing potential risks and opportunities.

Column chart showing a range of valuation metrics across equities and credit markets at the start of 2025 and as of May 7, 2025. The S&P 500 came into the year with its forward price/earnings ratio in the 93rd percentile relative to recent history, while credit spreads were testing their post-Global Financial Crisis tights. Despite the significant volatility markets have seen so far this year, equity valuations have generally held steady, while valuations for foreign stocks have risen. Credit spreads have widened across bonds and loans, though remain tighter than historical average. Public markets have yet to price in any meaningful economic slowdown despite still significant macro uncertainty.
Apr 4, 2025
By Research
2 minute read
Chart of the week

Domestic resilience in vogue amid selloff

S&P firms with a global focus have been at the heart of this year’s selloff. U.S.-oriented firms have skirted trade tensions and fared better.

Line chart that splits the S&P 500 based on revenue sources: Higher-than-average foreign (black line) vs. domestic (orange line). Amid rising trade tensions, the 250 companies with the highest percentage of domestic sales have significantly outpaced those that derive more revenue from foreign sources.
Mar 28, 2025
By Research
2 minute read
Chart of the week

Trade uncertainty registers parabolic growth

Tariffs have been mentioned nearly 1,000 times on Q1 earnings calls, driving volatility and sowing uncertainty across markets.

Mar 7, 2025
By Research
2 minute read
Chart of the week

Middle market resilience amid trade uncertainty?

The private U.S. middle market may represent a compelling opportunity as companies in this sector face less disruption from global supply chains.

Column chart showing the percentage of foreign revenues among S&P 500 companies (34%) and private U.S. middle market firms (16%), compared to exports as a percentage of U.S. gross domestic product (11%). Because U.S. middle market companies operate mostly within the confines of the U.S., they may represent an attractive opportunity as trade volatility whipsaws the S&P 500.
Feb 28, 2025
By Research
2 minute read
Chart of the week

As Treasury yields rise, so has stock-bond correlation

Stock-bond correlation sits at a 75-year high today as the era of easy diversification may be over amid a higher-for-longer rate environment.

Line chart showing the 30-day rolling correlation between the S&P 500 and the Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index, paired with the 10-year Treasury yield, as stock-bond correlations have moved in tandem over the past year. Over a longer period, the rolling 3-year correlation between stocks and bonds began to spike in early 2002, as the Fed began to aggressively hike rates, and today sits at a 75-year high of 0.67
Showing 1–6 insights out of 109 results

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