Chart of the week

Showing 1–6 insights out of 83 results
Dec 20, 2024
By Research
2 minute read
Chart of the week

Investor sentiment outpacing earnings?

Investor sentiment has raced to all-time highs. Could investors be overlooking potential volatility drivers, including moderating earnings forecasts?

Line chart contrasting the S&P 500’s relatively straight path higher this year with earnings forecasts for 2025, which have clearly decelerated during recent months.
Nov 15, 2024
By Research
2 minute read
Chart of the week

As small caps return to favor, quality remains a concern

Markets have turned risk-on since the election, as investors again embrace small caps. But 43% of Russell 2000 companies generate negative earnings.

Line chart showing the percentage of Russell 2000 (small cap) companies that generate negative earnings. The percentage has gradually moved higher, from 14% in 1994, to 43% as of Q3 2024. The diminishing quality of public small cap companies highlights the larger shift in the investment opportunity set and suggests private markets may offer better access to firms with stronger growth prospects.
Nov 1, 2024
By Research
2 minute read
Chart of the week

Middle market PE funds outperform through rate hike cycle

Middle market private equity has outperformed mega cap PE since the Fed began to raise rates. It remains well positioned amid a cloudy rate outlook.

Line chart showing private equity returns by fund size since the Fed rate hike campaign began. Performance has been inversely correlated to size as mega cap PE funds, which rely more heavily on leverage, have underperformed in an elevated rate environment. Middle market PE, which drives performance through fundamental improvements, has outperformed.
Oct 25, 2024
By Research
2 minute read
Chart of the week

Historically high valuations challenge equity returns

Stocks have generated paltry forward returns during historical periods when valuations have been as high as they are today.

Graph showing the S&P 500’s forward returns over the 1-, 2-, 3-, 5- and 10-year periods within each of the index’s price/earnings quintile. Historical returns have been meager when the index is in its most expensive quintile, as it is today, ranging from a maximum of 5% over the 1-year period to just 2% over the subsequent 10-year period.
Aug 16, 2024
By Research
2 minute read
Chart of the week

Election anxiety comes into focus for markets

This week’s chart highlights perceived market drivers over the next 30 days. Notably, the downside drivers outweigh the upside.

Column chart showing the results of a poll surveying investment managers’ views on market drivers over the next 30 days. Results were decidedly bearish, with the political environment and equity valuations among the largest expected drivers of negative returns. These factors more than offset supportive central bank policies and equity fundamentals in participants’ views.
Aug 9, 2024
By Research
2 minute read
Chart of the week

Recent market volatility just the beginning?

Volatility spiked this week as macro questions came to the fore. If history is any guide, volatility could remain elevated as the election heats up.

Line chart showing expected volatility in rates (orange line) and equity markets (black line) steadily rising in the two months before U.S. Presidential elections from 1992 through 2020 and dropping once again after the election has been decided.
Showing 1–6 insights out of 83 results

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